Helping policy makers assess the long-term impact of their decisions on the future elderly
The phenomena of population ageing are being seen across all nations of the world, regardless of economic income. There are many knock-on effects, particularly in the management of the healthcare and welfare systems, as well as wider impacts on the economy as a whole.
Therefore, tools to help policy makers assess the long-term impact of their decisions on the future elderly are increasingly important. CDRC researchers, Dr Nik Lomax and Luke Archer, are working on a collaboration with the University of California Schaeffer Centre to develop an English version of the Future Elderly model (FEM).
The FEM is a dynamic microsimulation model which simulates demographic change, ageing, disability and mortality, and provides a framework for policy analysis and the assessment of future healthcare need.
The English FEM is built on longitudinal survey data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and provides insight into how a range of risk factors (e.g. smoking, drinking, exercise, BMI) impact on health outcomes (e.g. cancer, diabetes, lung disease) and on mortality.
Research is focused on three different scenarios based on (1) a reduction in individual BMI, (2) a reduction in smoking, and (3) a reduction in prevalence of heart disease. All three scenarios are hypothetical and we compare baseline outcomes with interventions which bring about improvements in outcomes. Initial results are promising and demonstrate the utility of the model. A reduction in BMI for obese people in the cohort brings about a reduction in prevalence of diabetes in the future. Stopping people smoking brings about a dramatic reduction in lung disease. For heart disease, reducing prevalence in the model results in increased life expectancy.
The team have a forthcoming publication in the International Journal of Microsimulation which will provide details of the model and collaboration, and are currently using the FEM to quantify the potential impact of interventions with key risk factors such as drinking and diet.
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